A forecast is not a promise

Integrity · Little Light original

The forecast shows a range, with a central estimate and several assumptions that could move it. A leader asks for one number. By the next meeting, that number has become a commitment, and the team begins adjusting its forecast toward the outcome everyone hopes to announce. A tool for seeing reality is slowly taught to protect ambition from inconvenient evidence. A forecast and a target have different jobs. The target describes what the organisation intends to achieve. The forecast describes where current evidence suggests it is heading. Keep both visible, especially when they disagree. The gap is not disloyalty; it is where action, resources and difficult choices are needed. Leaders do not strengthen a plan by demanding that prediction resemble desire. They strengthen it by making honesty useful. Let the forecast move when the facts move, without treating every change as a broken promise. Ambition needs a destination. It also needs an instrument that can tell the truth about the road while there is still time to steer.

Little Light